THE FIELD NOTES/ RELEASE EDITION

UNDERSTAND THE ODDS

A little probability. Less guesswork.

Use a probability you have verified yourself. This calculator does not know the game’s current rates or pity rules.

Reviewed 19 Sep 2026Independent fan wiki

AT LEAST ONE SUCCESS

63.40%

Illustration: 100 independent rolls at 1% per roll.

What this calculation assumes

Each roll has the same probability and is independent. The chance of one or more successes after n rolls is 1 − (1 − p)n. The target estimate is the smallest whole number of rolls that reaches your desired probability under those assumptions.

Pity, guarantees, changing rates and shared rarity pools can invalidate this model. A Supreme-category rate is not necessarily the rate of one named clan. A high cumulative probability is still not a guarantee, and the result is not a recommendation to buy rolls.

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